Summer may mean warmer weather ahead, but not necessarily sunny days for the economy.

 

Recent figures produced by the Department of Labor have shown an uptick in new jobs, which has heartened some economists and no doubt the White House. In March and in April, more than 200,000 new employment opportunities were created.

 

But two good months in a row are not a guarantee that there will be a third, fourth or fifth. For starters, the spring employment figures aren’t as rosy as they might appear. Every month 130,000 new workers enter the job market, so 200,000 more jobs really means only a net improvement of 70,000 positions for the mass of unemployed looking for work.

 

Also, if the past four years are any indication, job figures will go down in the coming summer months. The problem lies with how the labor department calculates its spring statistics, which tends to inflate the news during that period, and thus make it that much harder for summer to look just as strong.

 

Another factor to consider is any talk of manufacturing jobs increasing in number is unlikely, according to economist Ian Fletcher of the Coalition for a Prosperous America. Whatever short-term boost that might appear in these sectors must be examined within the long-term reality that manufacturing production in most industries has been dwindling for years, nearly a decade actually. Although the United States still accounts for 20% of the world’s manufacturing output, there are not yet any signs that this share will improve over the long haul.

-Noel Brinkerhoff

 

Why March-April's Job Gains Will Collapse This Summer (by Jack Rasmus, Truthout)

The Manufacturing Rebound Is a Myth (by Ian Fletcher, Huffington Post)