Under 30s Lean Democratic in Each of Last 20 Years

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

A new Gallup survey shows the Republican Party has been losing the battle for the hearts and minds of young Americans over the last two decades, particularly among minorities.


During one 10-year stretch (1993 to 2003), individuals aged 18 to 29 identified 47% of the time as Democrats or independents who favored Democrats. Young people identifying as Republican or Republican leaning made up 42% of this age group.


The next 10 years got even worse for the GOP, especially from 2006 to 2013. Then, the gap in favor of the Democratic Party reached 18 percentage points, 54% to 36%.


Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones says the shift towards the Democratic Party has coincided with the growing racial diversity of America’s younger population.


Today, 54% of those in the 18-to-29 age group are Caucasian, and 45% are nonwhite. Nearly 20 years ago (1995), the proportion was 71% white and 29% minorities.


Young, nonwhite individuals now overwhelmingly favor Democrats over Republicans, 62% to 25%.


Another bad sign for the GOP is that the party is even losing out among young white people. “In recent years, young white adults, who previously aligned more with the Republican Party, have shifted Democratic,” Jones wrote.


“From 1995 to 2005, young whites consistently identified as or leaned Republican rather than Democratic, by an average of eight points. Since 2006, whites aged 18 to 29 have shown at least a slight Democratic preference in all but one year, with an average advantage of three points.”

-Noel Brinkerhoff


To Learn More:

Young Americans' Affinity for Democratic Party Has Grown (by Jeffrey Jones, Gallup)

California Youth Are Eager to Register, but Not to Vote (by Ken Broder, AllGov California)


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